It is almost conventional wisdom that commodity (particularly oil now) "
price shocks![](https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/blogger_img_proxy/AEn0k_vMIO4dlwrNfB3W-qnZ562DjBVYgdB_us4Zk33dDj8qyQ3gUzVCXN3tMwu5E-JAMfU2yQNZEifEpZkVOPCBmFsyFbJXU074-2JmoJzG1oeFwndktj1sYueKTc1a487C7HWDdEKsljg4QY-nsZtx2QDPHVCMPStJOjg3ejs26Ap6Ng=s0-d)
" or spikes have an affect on
inflation![](https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/blogger_img_proxy/AEn0k_ug6YTnATijGFtmNp8g7opYo3xBVYLg_6ATw1euYeAP6prdkGY2kG0UjjAnsdxQOdeClLfADluhch9fDaDXc1O189heEfOL-JnnH_yzMvc_NMIvKwz6rNMYtpyv1XmIENhHTPrE-qTAV0UORpM3Dm4RTRbgL3KlIDihfdxvF7ogUZY=s0-d)
. The Chicago Fed has a
new paper (.pdf) that says quite the contrary. For a quick perspective, here is a handy-dandy chart from the
IMF![](https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/blogger_img_proxy/AEn0k_u7fTbzvyeEeJ2j1AUn-vKLX1NEKbV08ILzCTFSa3ps0lgCr3S1pBOGD4BE9N1VAM58bGJP0pskFIF_KvxnHnhMu1daal6_EoDBY4FwknBJ4vVOVznn0yi86hhOBPZrTiJcfiICVPoLQGNDahhmTk39jN8tbdU_UvK9Vux6SyMOV-8=s0-d)
that tracks the correlation between the two:
![https://lh4.googleusercontent.com/_VgJQTp0Bsf0/TaR2iwMcjcI/AAAAAAAAAbg/SjuMGMZXYfE/commodity_core.jpg](https://lh4.googleusercontent.com/_VgJQTp0Bsf0/TaR2iwMcjcI/AAAAAAAAAbg/SjuMGMZXYfE/commodity_core.jpg)
H/T -
Paul Krugman